Generally speaking, economic indicators can be categorized as leading, coincident or lagging. That is, they describe likely future economic conditions, current economic conditions or conditions of the recent past. Economists are typically most interested in leading indicators as a way to understand what economic conditions will be like in the next three to six months. For example, indicators like new orders for manufactured goods and new housing permits indicate the pace of future economic activity as it relates to the rate of manufacturing output and housing construction.
Thanksgiving Dip For Data, Rates November 21, -- The kickoff for the all-important holidays retail sales season is said to start on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.
The day is so named as it the day that retailer books go from being in the red to being in the black, turning the corner on profitability. To drive traffic, retailers post all manner of discounts and "door buster" deals; this year's menu of fleeting discounts includes one on mortgage rates.
While not actually on sale, a considerable drop in rates may bring a few more patrons to mortgage lender doors. However, since many stores are actually open on Thanksgiving, the intensity of the day has been lost a bit in recent years.
Such is likely the case for the dip in rates, too; even though every little bit helps to improve a homebuyer's buying power or make a refinance a little more valuable, the intensity of impact from a dip in rates is muted by the regular uptrend for rates for much of the year.
More value might have occurred if the dip came in the middle of the spring and summer homebuying season, but the homebuying "retail season" for has faded in the rearview mirror.
Home sales have been lackluster for many months, impaired by a combination of ever-rising prices and rising financing costs. For existing homes, a lack of inventory for potential purchasers to buy has been a hindrance; for sales of new homes, higher prices and the inability for builder to build homes more quickly in the hottest markets has seemed to keep sales modest at best.
Despite these challenges, optimism regarding the housing market has still been pretty strong, but some cracks may have appear this week.
Have you seen HSH's updated analysis of the salary it'll take to afford a median priced home? Our review covers the 50 largest metropolitan areas, has maps for the most and least costly areas to live, as well as national data, too. Members of the National Association of Home Builders have been exuberant for many months.
Limited supplies of existing homes and the price gap between existing and new stock narrowing somewhat helped to provide steady demand, and conditions and the outlook seemed pretty bright.
Come November, conditions darkened rather abruptly. The NAHB Housing Market Index dropped by 8 points, its biggest one-month fall in more than four years, slumping back from ultra-strong readings to land at a value of 60 for the month.
While still strong, even robust, the sudden decline puts the headline value at its lowest point since August Sub-measures fared equally poorly; the indicator for sales of single-family homes shed 7 points to drop to 67; expectations for conditions over the next six months cratered by 10 to 65, and the measure of traffic at model homes and showrooms dropped 8 points to 45, a value indicating contracting demand, and the weakest showing since summer Perhaps this is just a bit of a reset in an otherwise favorable pattern, or a refection of a measurable decline in the stock prices of major homebuilders, an indication that financing conditions, materials costs and labor tightness are imparting a bit of nervousness or even related to the mid-term elections.
We'll know more in recent months, but there should be no expectation that sales conditions and builder demeanors are likely to improve measurably from these levels, at least not until spring rolls around again.
Housing starts did manage a slight uptick in October, rising by 1. Construction was begun on an annualizednew single-family homes, down by 1. Single-family starts have declined slightly in each of the last two months but have lacked traction since a May peak for the year.
Also, while starts may have risen for the month, they are still running at 2. Multifamily permits have now declined in each of the past 7 months; single-family permits have held up comparatively well over that time but a backing and filling pattern does not suggest acceleration is imminent.
We'll get the October update on sales of new homes next week, but if builder moods are an indication, the report may tend to the soft side. Want to get MarketTrends as soon as it's published on Friday?Current Market Conditions for Homes for Sale Our real estate agents have the experience and knowledge of the real estate industry and current market conditions in Northern Vermont to help you get the best price for your home and avoid unnecessary financial loss.
September Real Estate Market Conditions & Stats. Home sales in the City of Barrie totalled residential sales in September This is an decrease of % on a year-over-year basis. AgWeb is your trusted source for Agriculture Market information and tips. Track Ag futures prices for soy, corn, dairy, cattle, livestock, wheat, and more!
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